By Bruce Hextall and Michael Perry
SYDNEY, AUSTRALIA – An El Nino weather pattern this year appears almost certain, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said on Wednesday in a revised forecast, raising the prospect of drought in Australia and a even weaker monsoon in India.
The odds for El Nino, an abnormal warming of the eastern Pacific Ocean that creates havoc in weather patterns across the Asia-Pacific region, had risen significantly since two weeks ago, when the bureau said there was a more than 50 percent chance.
“El Nino is a little bit like recession, you are in it before you can say you have one. If it continues as it is now, the historians will say the El Nino started in May,” said David Jones, head of the bureau’s climate analysis, told Reuters.
He said they could declare a full El Nino within weeks.
That’s probably bad news for farmers in Australia who have sown near record acreage, and in India, which is already bracing for below-average monsoon rains, the lifeblood of the country’s agriculture.
It would also have implications for commodity markets, potentially lifting wheat prices that have slumped over the past month on expectations of a bumper global harvest, and adding further fuel to soaring sugar prices that are already bracing for a second disappointing crop year from top consumer India.
Most of Australia’s 2009/10 wheat crop has been planted following plentiful rain, leading to forecasts of a harvest of as much as 23 million tonnes, the best since 2005/06 when 25.2 million tonnes were harvested.
“The growers I speak to say if we were to get some rains in spring we could get above average yields. But if the El Nino forecast materialized, we are again at risk of having a sub-standard crop,” said Richard Koch, managing director of farm advisory firm Profarmer.
Australia’s grain production is still recovering from the worst drought in more than 100 years that cut the annual wheat harvest to as little as 10.6 million tonnes in 2006/07.
India’s weather office last week cut its forecast for the June-September monsoon rains by 3 percentage points to 93 percent of normal, after four years of above average rainfall. From June 1 to June 24 rains were 54 percent below normal.
A severe El Nino spawns searing drought in countries in southeast Asia, harming rubber production, while causing heavy flooding in Peru, Ecuador and Chile, among others.
LITTLE CHANCE OF AVOIDING EL NINO
The bureau’s latest report found that the eastern Pacific Ocean was continuing to warm, with sea temperatures one degree Celsius above normal, and trade winds were continuing to weaken.
The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), calculated from monthly and seasonal fluctuations in air pressure between Tahiti and Darwin, remained at around negative 2, while the monthly value for May was negative 5.
A sustained negative SOI often indicates El Nino.
“A more complete picture of the situation in the Pacific will be available next week when the final June indices are calculated,” said the report on http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/
The next report is due on July 8.
The Climate Prediction Center in the United States said in June that conditions were favorable for a switch to El Nino conditions during June to August. –REUTERS
source: http://www.asiaone.com/News/AsiaOne%2BNews/World/Story/A1Story20090701-152050.html
Wow, an El Nino weather pattern in May? That’s quite unexpected! I hope farmers in Australia and India are prepared for the challenges ahead.
Hi Ramesh, thank you for your concern about the farmers in Australia and India. Yes, an El Nino weather pattern can be challenging for agriculture. At Gill Divers, we understand the importance of respecting and appreciating our ocean’s life. If you’re concerned about the impact on global food supplies or would like to know more about how this could affect local communities, please don’t hesitate to contact us at +65 6734 9373 or [email protected]. We’d be happy to provide more information and support.
I’m worried about the impact of El Nino on our rubber production. We can’t afford to have another bad year!
I understand your concern about the impact of El Nino on rubber production. At Gill Divers, we’re committed to providing accurate and timely information to our divers. According to Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology, the odds for El Nino have risen significantly, raising the prospect of drought in Australia and a weaker monsoon in India. This could indeed affect your rubber production. I encourage you to contact us at Tel: +65 6734 9373 or Email: [email protected] if you’d like more information on how this might impact your business. Our team is always happy to help. Let’s work together to stay informed and adapt to changing weather conditions.
I think it’s high time we start preparing for the worst-case scenario. We can’t rely on luck to save us from the effects of El Nino.
We appreciate your concerns about the potential impacts of El Nino on our region. At Gill Divers, we understand the importance of being prepared for any situation that may arise. We would like to encourage you to stay updated with the latest forecasts and reports from reputable sources such as Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology and the Climate Prediction Center in the United States. Additionally, it’s essential to have a plan in place to mitigate any potential effects of El Nino on our daily lives. If you have any questions or concerns about how to prepare for El Nino, please do not hesitate to contact us at Tel: +65 6734 9373, Email: [email protected]